Data, Facts, Mass-Shootings, and Questions: from Columbine to Parkland

That which constitutes a “mass-shooting” has more than one definition.  One entails a non-criminal syndicate or gang related incident involving one or two, at most, shooters who kill or wound at least 4 or more people in a single incident in a single location or area.  This definition does not require the death of someone to count as a “mass-shooting”, only that four or more people have been shot by a single shooter, or two at most.  Another definition requires at least one death among the 4 or more victims to count, while others require that at least four people must be killed in a single shooting event to count as a “mass-shooting”.  What follows is some data on mass-shootings that employs either the first or the last definition.  Which applies will be cited when used.

According to one site that tracks mass-shooting events,[1] there have been 607 mass-shootings since the Orlando Pulse nightclub shooting of June 12, 2016, involving 768 deaths and many more wounded (or 608 mass-shootings and 818 deaths if the Orlando shooting is counted).  The list includes incidents involving both deaths and others in which victims were not killed.  Of the 607 shooting events since Orlando, just over 7 percent involved shootings in which 4 or more people were killed but they account for 36.5 percent of the 768 deaths.  According to the Washington Post and http://www.shootingtracker.com,[2] the 43 mass-shootings since Orlando involving 4 or more deaths, have accounted for some 280 deaths.[3]  Further to these numbers, Vox.com reports that there have been some 1,607 mass-shootings since the December 14, 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting in Newtown, Connecticut, involving 1,846 deaths and 6,459 injuries.[4]

Prior to August 1, 1966 and the Austin University of Texas tower shooting in which 18 people were killed and 30 others were wounded, mass-shooting events were rare occurrences.   In fact, only one shooting, prior to the Austin shooting, counts among the 20 deadliest mass-shootings in US history and that occurred in 1949 in Camden, New Jersey.[5]   Not only is it among the top twenty deadliest shootings, it is generally considered to be America’s first mass-shooting.[6]  Thirteen people were killed by a single shooter, who used a handgun, in what has come to be called the “Walk of Death” killings.

In the decades since the University of Texas shooting, the number of mass-shootings involving four or more deaths has grown, first slowly and then more rapidly as the 21st Century unfolded.  According to the Washington Post, there were a total of 10 events involving the shooting deaths of 4 or more people by a gunman over the course of the 1970s.  In the 1980s, the number grew to 21, while in the 1990s, the number reached 34.  Over the course of the first decade following the millennium, 34 mass-shootings occurred while in the eight years since the dawn of 2010, 42 mass-shootings have been recorded.[7]

Since 1966, the fewest number of mass-shootings involving 4 or more deaths occurred during the Nixon/Ford era in which only 6 mass-shootings were recorded over their combined 8 years in office.  Both the Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush terms experienced the next fewest mass-shootings on average (1.75 events/year, or 7 shootings over the course of each of their 4-year terms).  During President Johnson’s last years in office between 1966 and 1968, 2 such events occurred.  Over the course of Ronald Reagan’s eight years in office, a total of 17 mass-shootings took place, while the total of such incidents that occurred over the eight-year terms of Bill Clinton and George W. Bush were almost identical – 29 and 28 respectively.[8]

The number of 4 or more mass-shooting death incidents rose during Barack Obama’s Presidency to 37, which means that a mass-shooting of this kind occurred 4.6 times on average every year while Obama was in office.[9]  But though the number of shootings grew over the course of Obama’s administration, there have been 9 such mass-shootings since Donald Trump entered office just over a year ago.[10]  This number of mass-shootings averages out to 8.3 per year, which projects to some 33 mass-shootings involving 4 or more fatalities over the course of a one term, 4 year Trump Presidency, and some 66 incidents over the course of a two term, 8 year Presidency, if all else remains constant.

In 1966, the Texas tower sniper used a rifle to kill and wound most of his victims.  In recent years, single shot, bolt action, non-automatic weapons have been replaced by readily available assault type weapons like the AR-15 assault gun used in the most recent Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting in Parkland, Florida.  The weapon of choice used in the Columbine, Aurora, Sandy Hill, San Bernardino, Orlando, Las Vegas, and Sutherland Springs shootings were all of a similar make as well.  They all involved the use of military styled assault weapons.[11]

Of the ten most deadly all-time mass-shootings, which does not include Columbine or Aurora, eight took place after 1990 and, of these 8, six involved the use of off-the-shelf assault type weapons.  Of these top 10 mass-shootings involving more than 16 deaths, 7 have occurred since the ban on assault weapons was allowed to lapse in 2004, and of those seven, six involved the use of semi-automatic assault type rifles of the kind used in Parkland.[12]  Of the 272 deaths involving the top 10 mass-shootings since Columbine in 1999, seven involved these assault type rifles and accounted for 212 of the 272 total deaths – that is 78 percent of the deaths tied to these shootings.[13]  And, they accounted for 75 percent of the people who were wounded in them as well.[14]  The other three incidents within this top 10 list of mass-shootings since Columbine involved the use of handguns.[15]

Prior to Columbine, most mass-shootings, involving the deaths of twelve or more people, largely involved non-automatic rifles and/or hand guns, though the 1984 San Ysidro, California McDonald’s shooting did involve the use of an UZI semi-automatic pistol which, some have argued, ought to be counted as an assault weapon.[16]  Credence was given to this consideration in 2013 when Connecticut counted UZI pistols among its Gun Violence Prevention and Children’s Safety Act’s list of banned “assault weapons”.[17]  The relative non-use of assault weapons in mass-shootings prior to Columbine, and the rise in the use of off-the-shelf assault type weapons since then, poses a question or two.

Why have the number of mass-shootings involving the killing of 12 or more people increasingly involved the use of semi-automatic assault weapons?  Is this phenomenon a by-product of the ease with which they can be purchased, or their number in circulation, or both?

It is interesting to note that the number of mass-shootings has risen in America as restrictions on the sale and availability of guns have been reduced.  No federal law restricting access to any kind of rifle or hand gun has been enacted since 1994, though there have been many laws passed that make guns easier to acquire, including military styled assault weapons.  Restrictions on the sale of guns and gun ownership have been consistently peeled back over the years.  The most high-profile example of this occurred in 2004 when Congress refused to renew the 1994 Federal Assault Weapons Ban.

So, what does this all mean?  Is there a correlation between the rise in the number of mass-shootings in America, or the number of deaths attributed to gun use, and the number of guns that are easily available to Americans?  Has the reduction in arms sale and gun ownership regulations, that have been enacted over the last 20 to 30 years, contributed to making America safer than before those restrictions began to be lifted, or safer than in other countries which have placed restrictions on gun ownership and gun sales?

These are just a few of the questions that arise from the data on gun ownership, gun sales, and mass-shootings in America.  They are the kind of questions the teenage student survivors of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School mass-shooting are asking America’s political leaders today.  What answers will they get?  What actions will America’s lawmakers take?

                                                                                                                                               

 References

                                                               

Gun Violence Archive: Mass Shootings; http://www.shootingtracker.com/

Berkowitz, Bonnie and Denise Lu, Chris Alcantara; The Terrible number that grows with each mass shooting; the Washington Post; February 16, 2018; http://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/national/mass-shootings-in-america/?utm_term=.807c686acaca

Gilligan, Matt; The 1949 “Walk of Death” Mass Shootings Shocked America; https://didyouknowfacts.com/1949-walk-death-mass-shooting-shocked-america/

Lopez, German and Ryan Mark, Soo Oh; After Sandy Hook, we said never again. And then we let 1,607 mass shootings happen; Vox.com; February 14, 2018; http://www.vox.com/a/mass-shootings-sandy-hook

Lopez, German; America’s unique gun violence problem, explained in 17 maps and charts: In the developed world, these levels of gun violence are a uniquely American problem. Here’s why; Vox.com; February 15, 2018; http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/2/16399418/us-gun-violence-statistics-maps-charts

Mass Shootings in America; Wikipedia (the free encyclopedia); https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_shootings_in_the_United_States

Rose, Veronica; Weapons Banned as Assault Weapons; OLR research Report 2013-R-0241; May 29, 2013; http://www.cga.ct.gov/2013/rpt/2013-R-0241.htm

Sauer, Patrick; The Story of the First Mass Murder in US History; Smithsonian.com; October 14, 2015; http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/story-first-mass-murder-us-history-180956927/

                                                                                                                                                           

Appendix 1: List of Mass-shootings Involving Four (4) or More Deaths Since the Orlando Pulse Nightclub Shooting (from June 12, 2016 to February 26, 2018)

 Rank   Date of Shooting         No. of Deaths                          Locations

June 12, 2016 50 Orlando, Florida
1 June 29 5 Las Vegas, Nevada
2 July 7 5 Dallas, Texas
3 July 17 4 Baton Rouge, Alabama
4 July 23 4 Bastrop, Texas
5 August 6 5 Reading, Pennsylvania
6 August 20 5 Gitronelle, Alabama
7 August 29 5 Temecula, California
8 September 18 4 Del Valle, Texas
9 September 23 5 Burlington, Washington
10 October 1 4 Pembroke Township, Illinois
11 October 15 4 Los Angeles, California
12 October 27 4 Jacksonville, Georgia
13 December 5 4 Albuquerque, New Mexico
14 December 9 4 Channelview, Texas
15 December 17 5 Roseland (Chicago), Illinois
16 December 24 4 Wilson, North Carolina
17 January 27, 2017 4 Bremerton, California
18 February 6 4 Yazoo City, Mississippi
19 February 9 4 Jackson, Mississippi
20 March 22 4 Rothchild, Wisconsin
21 March 30 4 Chicago, Illinois
22 April 7 4 Saint Paul, Minnesota
23 April 7 5 Huston, Texas
24 April 30 4 Topeka, Kansas
25 May 27 8 Bogue Chito, Mississippi
26 June 6 5 Fort Lauderdale, Florida
27 June 14 4 San Francisco, California
28 June 15 5 La Madera, New Mexico
29 July 5 4 Madison, Maine
30 August 21 4 Whitakers, North Carolina
31 August 24 4 St. Louis, Missouri
32 October 1 59 Las Vegas, Nevada
33 October 5 4 Casa Grande, Arizona
34 October 11 4 Pedro, Ohio
35 November 5 26 Sutherland Springs, Texas
36 November 14 5 Corning, California (Rancho Tehama Elementary Sch)
37 December 31 4 Long Branch, New Jersey
38 January 28, 2018 5 Melcroft, Pennsylvania
39 January 28 4 Reading, Pennsylvania
40 February 1 5 Paintsville, Kentucky
41 February 11 4 Detroit, Michigan
42 February 14 17 Parkland, Florida (Marjory Stoneman Douglas HS)
43 February 26 5 Detroit, Michigan

Data for Table was gleaned from Gun Violence Archive: Mass Shootings; http://www.shootingtracker.com

                                                                                                                                                           

Appendix 2: Twenty (20) Most Deadly Mass-shooting Events in America

Rank      Date of Shooting*    Deaths                 Locations                                       Weapon** 

1 October 1, 2017 59 Las Vegas, Nevada Yes
2 June 12, 2016 50 Orlando, Florida Yes
3 April 16, 2007 33 Virginia Tech, Virginia Other
4 December 14, 2012 28 Sandy Hook Elementary; Newtown, Connecticut Yes
5 November 5, 2017 27 Sutherland Springs, Texas Yes
6 October 16, 1991 24 Killen, Texas Other
7 July 18, 1984 22 San Ysidro, California Other
8 August 1, 1966 18 University of Texas; Austin, Texas Other
9 February 14, 2018 17*** Marjory Stoneman Douglas HS; Parkland, Florida Yes
10 December 2, 2015 16 San Bernardino, California Yes
11 April 20, 1999 15 Columbine HS; Littleton, Colorado Yes
12 August 20, 1986 15 Edmund, Oklahoma Other
13 April 3, 2009 14 Binghamton, New York Other
14 September 6, 1949 13*** Camden, New Jersey Other
15 November 5, 2009 13*** Fort Hood, Texas Other
16 September 16, 2013 13 Washington Naval Yard; Washington, DC Other
17 September 25, 1982 13*** Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania Yes
18 July 20, 2012 12*** Aurora, Colorado Yes
19 July 29, 1999 12 Atlanta, Georgia Other
20 June 18, 1990 11 Jacksonville, Florida Yes

* Bolded data refers to 1990 and post-1990 mass-shooting evens; italicized data refers to pre-1990 mass-shooting events

** Weapon: refers to whether an assault-type rifle, such as an AR-15, was used in the mass-shooting

*** Indicates that the shooter was not among the dead in the mass-shooting event cited

Sources for data in table: http://www.shootingtracker.com; http://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/national/mass-shootings-in-america/?utm_term=.807c686acaca; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_shootings_in_the_United_States; among other articles

                                                                                                                                                           

 Appendix 3: Ten (10) Most Deadly Mass-shooting Events Since Columbine

 Rank      Date of Shooting      Deaths                     Locations                                  Weapon* 

1 April 20, 1999 15 Columbine HS; Littleton, Colorado Yes
2 April 16, 2007 33 Virginia Tech, Virginia Handgun
3 April 3, 2009 14 Binghamton, New York Handgun
4 November 5, 2009 13 Fort Hood, Texas Handgun
5 December 14, 2012 28 Sandy Hook Elementary; Newtown, Connecticut Yes
6 December 2, 2015 16 San Bernardino, California Yes
7 June 12, 2016 50 Orlando, Florida Yes
8 October 1, 2017 59 Las Vegas, Nevada Yes
9 November 5, 2017 27 Sutherland Springs, Texas Yes
10 February 14, 2018 17 Marjory Stoneman Douglas HS; Parkland, Florida Yes

* Weapon: refers to whether an assault-type rifle, such as an AR-15, was used in the mass-shooting

Data for Table was gleaned from Gun Violence Archive: Mass Shootings; http://www.shootingtracker.com

                                                                                                                                                           

Endnotes

[1] Gun Violence Archive: Mass Shootings; http://www.shootingtracker.com/

[2] ibid; Berkowitz, Bonnie and Denise Lu, Chris Alcantara; The Terrible number that grows with each mass shooting; the Washington Post; February 16, 2018; http://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/national/mass-shootings-in-america/?utm_term=.807c686acaca

[3] See Appendix 1: List of Mass-shootings Involving Four (4) or More Deaths Since the Orlando Pulse Nightclub Shooting (from June 12, 2016 to February 26, 2018)

[4] Lopez, German and Ryan Mark, Soo Oh; After Sandy Hook, we said never again. And then we let 1,607 mass shootings happen; Vox.com; February 14, 2018; http://www.vox.com/a/mass-shootings-sandy-hook

 [5] Sauer, Patrick; The Story of the First Mass Murder in US History; Smithsonian.com; October 14, 2015; http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/story-first-mass-murder-us-history-180956927/; See as well: Appendix 2; Twenty (20) Most Deadly Mass-shooting Events in America

[6] Ibid

[7] This data is drawn from the data provided in the following article: Berkowitz, Bonnie and Denise Lu, Chris Alcantara; The Terrible number that grows with each mass shooting; the Washington Post; February 16, 2018; http://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/national/mass-shootings-in-america/?utm_term=.807c686acaca

[8] Ibid

[9] Ibid

[10] Ibid

[11] See Appendix 2; Twenty (20) Most Deadly Mass-shooting Events in America

[12] Ibid

[13] See Appendix 3: Ten (10) Most Deadly Mass-shooting Events Since Columbine

[14] Berkowitz, Bonnie and Denise Lu, Chris Alcantara; The Terrible number that grows with each mass shooting; the Washington Post; February 16, 2018; http://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/national/mass-shootings-in-america/?utm_term=.807c686acaca

[15] See Appendix 3: Ten (10) Most Deadly Mass-shooting Events Since Columbine

[16] Berkowitz, Bonnie and Denise Lu, Chris Alcantara; The Terrible number that grows with each mass shooting; the Washington Post; February 16, 2018; http://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/national/mass-shootings-in-america/?utm_term=.807c686acaca

[17] Rose, Veronica; Weapons Banned as Assault Weapons; OLR research Report 2013-R-0241; May 29, 2013; http://www.cga.ct.gov/2013/rpt/2013-R-0241.htm

                                                                                                                                                                  

 

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